A new poll released this evening by Rasmussen shows that Martha Coakley's lead in the special Senate election is shrinking.
The poll of likely Democratic voters found that 36% support Coakley, 21% support Mike Capuano, 14% support Steve Pagliuca, and 14% support Alan Khazei.
That is the highest number Khazei has pulled in any polls to date.
Update: I can't access the cross tabs because I'm not a Rasmussen premium customer, but wanted to add some further dissection of the poll.
For starters, I should note that Rasmussen did an earlier poll on this race. And when I say earlier, I mean EARLIER. That first poll, conducted on September 9, asked voters who they would vote for if the candidates were Coakley, Capuano, Lynch, Meehan, Markey, or Tierney. Yikes.
Obviously, there have been some developments in the campaign since then, so most of the numbers from that first poll need to be thrown out. But here's what can be useful:
--In the first poll, Coakley led the field with 38%, Capuano pulled 7%, other candidates combined for 29%, and 25% were undecided.
--Coakley had 67% favorables vs. 17% unfavorables, with 17% unsure about her.
--Capuano had 27% favorables, 25% unfavorables, and a whopping 47% percent of respondents were unsure about him.
In the poll results released today (the poll of 567 likely Dem primary voters was conducted yesterday), Coakley's number had dropped to 36%. A very minor drop to be sure, especially since undecideds are down to 10%, and nobody is within 10 percentage points of her.
Some other toplines from today's poll:
--Coakley's favorables dropped to 61%, and her unfavorables rose to 30%. Just 8% remain undecided about her.
--Capuano actually posted better favorable numbers than Coakley at 62% (Her "very" favorables beat him 31%-22%, although her "very" unfavorables beat him too 14%-11%), with his unfavorables holding steady at 26%. His undecided number has dropped from 47% to 12%.
--Alan Khazei posted 47% favorables vs. 31% unfavorables, with 22% still unsure about him.
--Steve Pagliuca has 49% favorables, vs. the field's highest unfavorables at 37%. 14% remain undecided about Pags.
New Rasmussen poll shows Coakley lead shrinking, Khazei rising.
Posted by
The Senator
on Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Labels:
polling
11 comments:
Go Alan!!!!
A win is a win, and that's what MARTHA COAKLEY will get at the end of the day....
I would say that this poll shows the only candidate that has the money and popularity (favorable's higher than Martha) is Capuano. At this point it is anybody but Coakley, and Capuano is the one to do it.
khazei is the same candidate that just put a diaper ad on TV? This guy is a joke. Thank god Mike Capuano is in the race.
Yeah Pags! He's got the economic know how to help get this economy back on track
Khazei is about to catch fire. Most people have yet to hear about him, but he's the one providing the most substantive answers to our problems. That's why he's gone from 3% to 6% to 14%.
One question - is it possible that 50% of people were undecided and 25% willing to change their mind a few days ago, and then today that undecided number has shrunk to 10%? VERY DOUBTFUL.
Poll is an outlier: it's not worth the website it was posted on.
1 - Khazei doesn't have 78% NAME ID as poll suggests.
2 - Capuano has 67/30 Fav/Unfav with Males; Coakley has 51/43 with same demo. And yet she leads males?
3 - Coakley's #'s are upside down with conservatives in the poll at 45/52 but yet she's winning their vote 34% to 20 % for Pags and 19% for Capuano.
4 - NO sample size given for demographics; age, income, etc
5 - NO sample size or data broken down by geography
6 - NO data given for # of Dems polled vs. # of undeclared voters
God save us from six years of Martha Coakley... Um uh uh um uh um uh eh umm
Among the candidates who participated in a debate at UMass Amherst (Martha didn't make the trip to western MA), Khazei was definitely the most interesting candidate. At this point, though I had been undecided, I will likely vote for him.
Alan is a breath of fresh air, entrepreneurial spirit, grass-roots activism. Senate could use more of his thinking and drive.
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