Nerd alert: Fun with cross tabs.

There were plenty of headlines from yesterday's Suffolk-7News Poll, including the facts that only 7% of voters knew the Senate primary was December 8 (more on this later today) and that Coakley maintains a strong lead (44%) among likely Democratic voters.  The poll also had some interesting underreported data (like Khazei losing to Scott Brown - which will also get more attention from me later today) that I wanted to share with you.

For anyone unfamiliar with polling data, it often contains cross-tabs, or page after page of respondent answers broken down with corresponding answers from the same groups.  If that didn't make any sense, imagine that 10 people are asked a true or false question, and six of them answered true and four of them answered false. Then that same group was asked a second question, and three of them answered true and seven answered false.  A cross-tab would could show me how the three people who answered true on the second question answered the first question, etc. etc.  (And if that still doesn't make any sense, wikipedia exists for a reason.)

So I took a look at the 400+ pages of cross-tabs from the Suffolk-7 poll and came up with a variety of interesting data points.  If you are complete nerd like me, enjoy.  If you would rather poke your eyes out than read any further, I invite you to watch the Lisa Shue video again (and yes, the Khazei camp tells me she goes by Lisa now).

Fun with cross-tabs:


--Despite the constant bickering between he and Coakley, Capuano actually has higher favorables with women than men (43-33, vs 23-14 unfavorables).

--Caps has only 52% favorables in Suffolk County (Boston, Cambridge, Somerville, Chelsea), which he represents in Congress - probably not a good sign. 

--Coakley has 75% favorables in Suffolk County, and kills with voters aged 55-64 (67%) and 65-74 (76%)

--In a Democratic primary, Coakley wins in all demos, except 18-34 yr. olds, where she is tied with Pags at 26%.  I think my demo might be watching a LOT of TV. 

--50% of Republican voters have never heard of Scott Brown.

--60% of 18-34 year olds have never heard of Alan Khazei, which is higher than his overall unknowns (51%).  I thought he was the candidate connecting with young voters?

--32% say Alan Khazei has run the WORST campaign so far, including 42% in Suffolk County.  Yikes, I assumed the City Year connection would make him pretty popular in and around Boston.  He only has 15% favorables in Suffolk, with 44% unknowns.

--21 % of voters say Capuano is the most like Ted Kennedy, leading Coakley (16%), Pagliuca (12%), Khazei (3%).  For some reason 18-34 year olds think Pags is most like Kennedy (23%).

--It doesn't seem to matter much anyway (except to Capuano's people). Just 30% of likely Coakley voters thought she was the most like Ted Kennedy, vs. 60% of likely Capuano voters. 

--Scott Brown beats Robinson easily in every demo, including Republicans, independents, and minority voters.

--Union members choose Coakley in a Democratic primary 42% to 23% for Capuano, 16% for Pags, and 4% for Khazei.

--57% of voters support casino gaming in Massachusetts. Those numbers go up for Capuano supporters (64%), Coakley supporters (61%), and Pagliuca supporters (64%), and down for Khazei (36% of Khazei supporters also support casino gaming).  

--The casino issue doesn't appear to be helping Khazei much though.  Of 37% of Mass. voters opposed to casinos, just 2% are voting for Khazei. 

--Of independents likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Coakley leads with 56%, Pags is next at 25%, Capuano has 18%, and Khazei's at 5%, with 21% undecided. 

--49% of Coakley voters said healthcare was the most important issue facing the next U.S. Senator.  38% said the economy. Just 36% of Coakley supporters think she has the best economic plan. 

--Capuano supporters are evenly divided at 40%-40% on those two issues.

--36% of Khazei supporters say health care is the biggest issue, followed by the economy (27%) and taxes (18%).

--Pagliuca's supporters think the economy is the big issue (44% vs. 36% who say health care), and 44% of his supporters think he has the best economic policies. 

--Khazei supporters are not very optimistic. 45% of Khazei supporters think Coakley will be the next Senator. Not a single Khazei supporter thinks Khazei will win.

--Capuano supporters are not as pessimistic, but they're not very confident either.  Just 35% of Caps supporters think he will be next Senator, 38% say Coakley. 

--Pagliuca supporters are the most optimistic of the challengers. 49% of his supporters believe in him, and only 15% of Pags supporters think Coakley will win.

--On a "partisanship is alive and well" note, 31% of those who will vote for Scott Brown in January have never heard of him. 

--Finally, my favorite fact of the day.  53% of voters think Massachusetts is heading in the wrong direction.  53% of voters would also vote to re-elect their State Rep. 

I give up.