If a poll opens on December 8, will anybody notice?

Perhaps the most interesting tidbit that emerged from last week's Suffolk-7News poll was the astonishingly low percentage of voters who knew the date of the primary in the Senate special election.

Just 7% of likely Democratic voters could pinpoint the correct election date of December 8, and only 22% even knew it was even in December.  Given that the weather on election day could very well be 20 degrees and snowing (although given our current November warmth I guess it's conceivable that election day could be 75 and sunny), turnout is shaping up to be abysmal.

So what does a low-turnout election mean for the race?  It has the potential to throw it completely up for grabs.

Keep in mind that in primary elections, turnout is low to begin with.  Very few casual voters turn out.  In special elections, turnout drops further.  A special election in December? We could be lucky to see 15% of voters at the polls.

The key for the various campaigns will be organization and get out the vote (GOTV) efforts on election day.  Whoever can get their people to the polls has a shot at victory.

Cross-tabs from the Suffolk poll don't indicate any decided advantage in election day knowledge for any Democratic candidate.  More of Coakley's supporters thought the election was in January (34%) than any of the other candidates, although more of her people (a robust 11%) also correctly identified December 8.  A whopping 56% of Pagliuca supporters were undecided on the date, so maybe he should add a December 8 line to some of his campaign ads.

The various campaign websites don't exactly help the election day awareness effort.

Coakley's site has the strongest election day presence.  The first option under the "Get Involved" tab is this handy little page with information on the election date and registration info/deadlines. She also has her 12-08 challenge linked on most drill down pages.  The home page, however, does not mention December 8.

Capuano's site lists election day on the home page in the right column under "Attend Event."  The Caps campaign also has election day listed on its event calendar, which should go without saying...

...Except that neither the Khazei nor Pagliuca campaigns do so. Both of their event calendars show a blank slate for December 8. In fact, in a quick scan of both Khazei's and Pag's website, I couldn't find a single mention of election day.  Word of advice to both camps, you might want to tell potential supporters when the election will be held.  It usually helps GOTV efforts.

The results of the poll were certainly not lost on the campaign teams.  Dave Jacobsen, a spokesman for the Khazei campaign, noted that "the fact that 93% of voters do not know when the election is shows that this race is still wide open."  He also pointed to the campaigns extensive grass roots and social media efforts to build up a field organization.  "Every day our campaign is building momentum on the ground and we are confident that our strong grassroots organization will prove successful on Election Day."

Coakley's team is equally confident.  A campaign spokesperson said Camp Coakley is "working very hard to raise awareness about this special election date and have been preparing a very robust grassroots volunteer get out the vote operation."  Coakley staffers expect "that voters will follow the campaign more and more closely as we approach the December 8th special primary election date," and they are confident "that our ground team of thousands of supporters across Massachusetts will work with us to turn out their friends and neighbors on December 8th come rain, wind, or snow."

(The other campaigns could not be reached for comment.)

What do kennedyseat.com readers think?  Which (if any) of the candidates are helped/hurt by a low-turnout election?  Any predictions for turnout? 15%? 25%?  Leave your answers in the comments.